Economic Outlook

Recent Survey Results

The overall RMI dropped below growth neutral for March to its lowest level since October 2025.
Weakness in the farm sector is spilling over into the business community with approximately 27.2% of bankers reporting that small businesses in their area were experiencing declines in business activity.
After falling below growth neutral for January and February, the March farm and ranchland index rose to 50.2 from 45.5 in February.
The 2026 conflict in Iran has created significant volatility in the agricultural sector, primarily impacting agricultural equipment sales, with the index falling below growth neutral for the 31st straight month.
More than half, or 52.4%, indicated no change or declines in delinquency rates, with 47.6 percent reporting that loan delinquency rates increased modestly.

A sharp upturn in new February orders pushed the overall index into solid growth territory.
The regional manufacturing sector shed jobs for the 11th straight month.
The wholesale inflation gauge moved higher, further discounting the likelihood of a rate cut at the Federal Reserve’s March 17-18 meetings.
Six of 10 supply managers reported that tariffs had caused economic damage to their firm. As reported by one supply manager, “The constant tariff volatility is not good for business.”
Both export and import readings slumped below growth neutral.
According to U.S. International Trade Administration (ITA) data, regional manufacturing exports for all of 2025 fell 5.4% from 2024. Likewise, the regional importation of manufactured goods sank by 4.0%. Thus, the regional trade deficit in manufactured goods increased from $5.1 billion in 2024 to $6.2 billion in 2025.